Coty’s stock (NYSE: COTY), while down more than 70% this year, moved up nearly 13.2% over the last 5 days, outperforming the S&P 500. While this might sound exciting, the chances are that the uptrend isn’t going to last. How do we know this? We look at past stock patterns as well as Coty’s underlying financial growth to arrive at this conclusion. Our AI engine analyzes historical price movement to predict near term behavior for a given level of movement in the recent period, and suggests nearly a 30% probability of Coty Inc. dropping -10% over the next 21 trading days. Compared to this, the chances of it rising by 10% during the same time frame are 15%, suggesting that Coty is 2X more likely to fall than it is likely to rise. If we look at the next 3 months, the chances of a -10% decline jump to a significant 50%. Our detailed dashboard highlights the chances of Coty Inc.’ stock rising or falling and should help you understand near-term return probabilities for different levels of movements.
In addition, the underlying fundamentals support our assessment that Coty’s upward momentum is unlikely to continue for long. Our dashboard Big Movers: Coty Inc. Moved 13.2% – What Next? lays this out.
Let’s take a look at how Coty’s stock has moved. The company’s stock price decreased -76% this year, from $11.13 to $2.65, before moving 13.2% last week, and ending at $3.00. This means that at the beginning of this year, Coty Inc.’s trailing 12 month P/S ratio was 1.33. This figure decreased -67% to 0.43, before ending at